Why the Upcoming Georgian and Moldovan Elections Matter
The election results from two small European countries will have huge implications regarding Russian influence in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus.
September 7, 2024
By: Daniel Miller
2024 will see more global elections than any other year, as half of the world’s population will participate. In Europe, immigration and the threat of politicians sympathetic to Russia are issues galvanizing people on the right and the left, respectfully. While immigration was more of an issue in France and Britain, whose left-wing coalitions narrowly defeated the anti-immigrant parties, a bigger issue in countries like Moldova and Georgia is the threat of Russia trying to force regional hegemony through destabilization efforts and financially supporting or opportunistically installing puppet politicians. While the November election in the United States is arguably the most important of them all, the two happening a few weeks prior are also important for strengthening democracy and maintaining regional stability.
Moldova - October 20th
Moldova will not only hold its presidential election, in which popular pro-Western incumbent Maia Sandu will seek out another term, but it will also hold a referendum to determine whether or not it will join the European Union.
The poorest country in Europe, Moldova, just like the rest of the Eastern Bloc and former Soviet countries, has been dealing with unwanted Russian influence since the fall of the Soviet Union. President Sandu has accused Russia of financing a coup attempt against her by fomenting anti-government protests and bribing protesters to do so. According to the non-profit, U.S. government-funded International Republican Institute, 63% of Moldovans support joining the EU, an increase of 9% since before the invasion of Ukraine.
President Sandu recently signed a defense alliance with the EU, which is aimed at strengthening security operations in areas like cybersecurity, counterterrorism, and border management.
Moldova has no standing military, so there is no real possibility of joining NATO, but they are part of NATO’s Partnership for Peace program (PfP). This means that the country works with NATO on specific goals, such as military interoperability, defense reforms, and security cooperation, but it is not protected under the Article 5 collective defense guarantee.
The small country also has to deal with two autonomous regions that are almost exclusively pro-Russian, Gagauzia, and the desolate breakaway region of Transnistria, which has its own currency, judicial system, and border checkpoint. Home to less than half a million people, the breakaway region has been the biggest thorn in Moldova’s side since a 1994 Russian-brokered ceasefire agreement allowed Transnistria to function as a separate country but would be recognized by the international community, including Russia, as part of Moldova. Financially supported almost entirely by the Kremlin, around 1,200 Russian peacekeeping troops have been stationed there since.
Transnistria is also a highly militarized country, something that has always made the government in Chișinǎu a little nervous. Everyone speaks Russian almost exclusively; no other languages are taught or encouraged. While there will be no polling places in Transnistria, people living in the region are free to travel to one in Moldova which is closest to them. Only time will tell how Transnistria, and to a lesser extent Gagauzia, will act if the majority of Moldovans choose EU integration.
Georgia - October 26th
Georgia is another country that has made significant steps towards prosperity while dealing with a Russian threat since gaining independence in 1991. While average wages remain low, more attention has been focused on mitigating the rampant corruption that has traditionally plagued Eastern Europe and the post-Soviet countries. Even though there has been some success in mitigating corruption, it still remains a major concern.
The ruling Georgian Dream party has been in power since 2012, but years of burgeoning discontent culminated in hundreds of thousands of protestors across the country rallying against the passage of what’s dubbed the “foreign agent” bill. The law stipulates that any media organization or non-governmental organization (NGO) whose income exceeds 20% must register as an agent of foreign influence. Many Georgians are unhappy as they are concerned the impact it will have on its already weak press freedoms.
In an interview with Deutsche Welle (DW), Anastasia Pociumban, from the German Council for Foreign Relations, claims that the foreign agent bill indicates that the Georgian Dream party is scared as its popularity declines.
“The law, while it’s labeled as Russian law and very much inspired by Russian legislation, doesn’t come on Russian demand. It really comes from the Georgian leadership from Georgian Dream in an attempt to preserve the power over the country. The fear is that in the upcoming election, they will not get the majority. However, I believe the party underestimated the Georgian population.”
The party has also throttled Georgia’s efforts to become an EU member state as they have adopted increasingly more pro-Russian policy positions, whereas 80% of the country favors joining the EU and is more culturally aligned with the rest of Europe. Much of the animosity towards Russia stems from Russia’s 2008 invasion and continued occupation of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, territories that are internationally recognized as part of Georgian territory.
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